melbourne cup 2024

 

Melbourne Cup betting preview 2024: Tips, odds, form guide and analysis for Flemington

The biggest day on the racing calendar has arrived with the 2024 edition of the Melbourne Cup.

Australia's greatest race and one of the world's premier staying contests, this year's Cup shapes as another tough one to get a read on, with all sorts of formlines from all over the world.

Melbourne Cup betting preview, tips, runner-by-runner form guide 

1. Vauban

Consistent performer and is going better than last year when well supported. Finished a disappointing 14th on that occasion but the French-bred seven-year-old will be better for the experience and comes into this with plenty to like.

Verdict: Winning chance

2. Buckaroo

The six-year-old has been performing strongly in the right lead-up races - his second in the Caulfield Cup caught the eye. Distance will be the concern. Can Joao Moreira get that elusive Cup win?

Verdict: Winning chance

3. Circle Of Fire

Strong Sydney Cup win earlier this year but has been pretty ordinary so far this prep. The two miles will suit but you'd need to be confident in an improved performance.

Verdict: Each-way chance

4. Warp Speed

Japanese six-year-old who wasn't in the finish in the Caulfield Cup but should appreciate the step up in distance and a firmer track. Been competitive in big races but needs to improve.

Verdict: Outside chance

5. Kovalica

His recent performances suggest he should run out the race strongly but he hasn't won since the 2023 Queensland Derby. Trainer and jockey combination is a big tick.

Verdict: Outside chance

6. Sharp 'N' Smart

Tough Kiwi stayer who will give his all right through to the finish. Hasn't won in a while and is up in class against some of these.

Verdict: Slim chance

7. Just Fine

Very poor last time out at Moonee Valley which should be enough to scare off most punters. Could roll forward and push the pace but will be outclassed here.

Verdict: Better value options out there

8. Land Legend

Performed strongly in last two outings for a third in the Caulfield Cup and a first in The Metropolitan. Distance a query but will give his all and shouldn't be far off.

Verdict: Each-way chance 

9. Absurde

Solid European stayer who comes into this one off a nine-week spell after a first over 2916m at Chester. Finished seventh in the race last year and seems to be going just as well. Stablemate of favourite Vauban.

Verdict: Winning chance

10. Athabascan

Last-start winner over 2600m but question marks over the formline. Not the most consistent of performers but could be a place chance if everything goes right.

Verdict: Prefer others

11. Knight's Choice

Was solid in a fifth in the Bendigo Cup but was nowhere when running 14th in the Caulfield Cup prior. Probably outclassed in this.

Verdict: Save your money

12. Okita Soushi

A strong run to win the Moonee Valley Cup over 2500m last time out. Has won over the distance so the trip shouldn't be a problem. 

Verdict: Each-way chance

13. Onesmoothoperator

US-bred, UK-trained seven-year-old who made the most of his Australian debut in winning the Geelong Cup last month. Has Craig Williams on board and will have no problem running the trip. Failed a vet test over the weekend but was eventually cleared.

Verdict: Winning chance

14. Zardozi

Going well without getting the wins. Has been hitting the line strongly enough to suggest it should be in the mix here but will need to run a big race to win.

Verdict: Each-way chance

15. Sea King

Dominant in the Bendigo Cup on Australian debut and has a solid staying record in Europe. Yet to run over two miles but gets in with a light weight and could figure in the finish.

Verdict: Winning chance

16. Valiant King

Finished ninth in the Caulfield Cup and 10th in the Turnbull. Not the worst form in the field but not far off it. One of two grey horses in the field.

Verdict: Won't be winning

17. Fancy Man

Wasn't disgraced for a sixth in the Caulfield Cup and was solid in running third in the Herbert Power. Too many question marks and doesn't have the quality.

Verdict: Look elsewhere 

18. Interpretation

Sixth in the race last year and second in the Geelong Cup recently. Can be inconsistent but has been hitting the line strongly. Not without a hope if he turns up.

Verdict: Place chance 

19. Manzoice

Has placed this prep but over shorter distances and in far weaker fields. 10th in his last start at Flemington.

Verdict: Not good enough to win

20. Mostly Cloudy

Finished 12th over 2520m at Flemington. Has run a second over two miles in the Brisbane Cup but will probably the find the going too tough here.

Verdict: Outside chance to place

21. Positivity

May have to go forward from wide gate and isn't a good enough stayer to hold these off.

Verdict: No chance

22. Saint George

Hit the line strongly last time out to suggest he's not without a hope here but would need everything to go right. The only other grey in the race so sure to be a sentimental favourite.

Verdict: Outside chance

23. The Map

Geelong Cup run was okay without setting the world alight. If you like that form, there's probably better chances in this. Qualified for the race months back so you'd hope its best is yet to come.

Verdict: Outside chance for a minor placing

24. Trust In You

Has a sixth over 3200m in the Auckland Cup and has run some decent races this prep but will found these too strong.

Verdict: No chance

Melbourne Cup bests bets and prediction

The Sporting News top tips for the 2024 Melbourne Cup:

1. Onesmoothoperator ($8.50 win/$3.20 place)
2. Absurde ($9 win/$3.30 place)
3. Sea King ($12 win/$4 place)

Value bet: Warp Speed ($26 win/$5.75 place)